TROPICAL CYCLONE LILI FORMS OUT OF SEASON

Tropical Cyclone Lili was named by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Jakarata at lunch time today Eastern Standard Time. It has formed just over a week after the official end to the Indonesian Cyclone Season. The system lies about 570kms East of Kapung, but its exact centre of circulation is difficult to accurately locate due to the system's oval shaped structure.


The cyclone is expected to remain weak today and tomorrow while it tracks south-west between Timor and the Northern Territory towards Timor/Indonesia. The system will likely weaken below cyclone intensity on Saturday whether or not it hits the coast as a wall of dry air from Australia makes its way northwards into the Timor Sea and Indonesia. While the official forecast map from the Cyclone Warning Centre below has the system drifting quite close to Australia, there is little evidence in computer modelling nor is there evidence in the upcoming synoptic scale setup beginning tomorrow to suggest that such a southward track will actually occur, with the system likely to move west a lot further northwards than the map below indicates.


Official Track forecast from the TCWC in Jakarta issued 1PM QLD time May 9

Folks in the Northern Territory's Top End and North Kimberley would be noticing an increase in cloud over the past 24 hours as the upper level clouds off Lili stream southwards. The system is unlikely to bring any heavy rainfall to Australia's mainland (cloudy conditions and light patchy rain may still be experienced in parts), however heavy showers on the Northern Tiwi Islands and the far northern Cobourg Peninsula can not be totally ruled out in the next 24 hours as the system drifts a little further southwards.




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